Covid – 19: We’ve not reached our peak in Covid -19 cases. – Health Economist

Contrary to views that Ghana has reached its peak in the Covid 19 cases, a Health Economist at the University of Ghana has warned Ghanaians not to be tricked for we have not reached our peak.

Dr. Gordon Abekah-Nkrumah, a Health Economist at the University of Ghana has identified the temptations of the Ghana Health Service and Ghanaians to be tricked that the country has peaked in the Covid-19 cases.

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Dr. Abekah-Nkrumah, speaking on The Big Issue, monitored by obcommuncation.com revealed that contrary to claims and presentation of graphs made by the Ghana Health Service, led by Dr. Badu Sarkodie, to suggest that we have peaked, the situation isn’t so.

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He therefore added that he was quite astonished because taking a cursory look at the graph, it was clear that it was undulating and doesn’t really tally with the conclusion since it rises and drops within the stipulated period especially looking at cases from the routine surveillance.

Dr. Abekah - Nkrumah believes we haven't reached our peak in covid 19 cases.
Dr. Gordon Abekah-Nkrumah, Health Economist at the University of Ghana

“…Once they talked about the fact that we’ve hit the peak, I was a bit surprised because for instance if you look at the new cases from the routine surveillance, you realize that prior to the new figures, if you look at it in terms of a seven-day moving average, there was a bit of a dip”.

He further added that it was obvious people were going to be tricked into believing that Ghana had reached her peak since the graph kept showing a spiral.

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“So I would imagine that people were tricked into believing that we had reached our peak. But even if you look at the seven-day moving average from the previous report, you realize that the graph is just going up and down.

Curve showing we haven't reached our peak according to Dr. Abekah Nkrumah

According to Dr. Abekah – Nkrumah the spiral and somewhat rises in the cases from the graph should have given the Ghana Health Service an idea that they needed time to make conclusions.

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Making reference to the cumulative confirmed cases and analyzing it within the seven to fourteen day averages, it also shows that trend was now upward, hence he was unsure what the GHS considered before making the pronouncement.

“Again, if you also look at cumulative confirmed cases, and you were looking at it in terms of seven and 14-day averages, you realise that the trend is upward. And so I’m not sure whether they looked at all this before they started talking about the fact that we’ve actually gotten to our peak,” he insisted.

Currently, Ghana’s case count has risen to 4,263 with four more deaths.

BY: ONESIPHORUS OBUOBI

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